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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  November 28, 2013 7:00pm-7:31pm PST

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this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and susie gharib brought to you in part by. >>, up to the minute stock market news and in depth analysis. our quant rating service provides objective independent ratings daily on over 4300 stocks. learn more at the good evening everybody, happy thanksgiving, happy thanksgiving, sue. >> thank you, tyler. happy thanksgiving. >> welcome, everybody, to a special thanksgiving edition of "nightly business report." i'm tyler mathisen. >> i'm susie gharib. it is thanksgiving day here in the u.s., a time marking the beginning of the holiday season and a time when millions of americans take to the road and skies to be with family and friends. couple that with the start of the jewish holiday hanukkah, a
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special time. >> time for investors to think about what to do with portfolios as this year draws to a close. so tonight, we'll look how the markets tend to behave the final weeks of the year and how that sets up for 2014. we'll also look at the sector who that has a lot riding on these final few weeks, and that, of course, is retail. and that is where we begin tonight with retail. this year the list of major retailers and malls open for business on thanksgiving is longer than it has ever been. many big names are staying open through black friday and the retail industry has a lot riding on this plan. >> reporter: for many americans, thanksgiving day is packed with traditions, tuning into watch the macy's parade, eating a turkey dinner, watching football and shopping. >> i'd say i'd rather go shopping, yeah, because normally that's a tradition of ours, we could go shopping thanksgiving. it excites us a bit. >> once thanksgiving is over, i'll be going shopping, probably
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macy's. >> reporter: every year it seems the christmas creeps earlier and earlier. for many thanksgiving hours have moved from an experiment to a tradition. kmart is opening at 6:00 a.m. on thanksgiving day and toys r us at 5:00 p.m. and target, macy's, jp men knees, kohl's and sears are opening at 8:00 p.m. today and not locking them until late black friday night. not every retail will have thanksgiving shopping hours and not every american loves the idea but many do. >> they got people who wouldn't normally shop to come out and shop. so mom stayed at home because she was exhausted after cooking but dad and the kids went out shopping. >> reporter: the national retail federati federation says thanksgiving shoppers tend to be more 18 to 34 years old. retailer haves seen foot traffic increase over the past couple
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years with the earlier thanksgiving hours, analysts say it doesn't add to overall sales. in some cases, it shifts the purchasing earlier in the weekend or spreads out spending over a longer period of time and this year, timing is everything. thanksgiving falls on the latest possible date, shortening the traditional holiday shopping season to just 25 days, down from 31 days last year. >> there is a real sense f urgency retailers are trying to do everything they can to get people to spend early and often and late. >> reporter: plus, the beginning of the aday hanukkah sell brace begins today, the first time it's coincided with thanksgiving in 95 years. the national retail federation says while only 6.5% celebrate hanukkah, the group intends to spend 5% more this year than the average. retailers are trickling outdoor buster special deals throughout the weekend, in some cases
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offering big deal thursday geared toward the younger shopper and targeting moms and older shoppers friday and beyond. for nightly business report, i'm courtney regan. >> for a list of store opening times, log on toys r us is one of the retailers whose doors will open for the first time this year on thanksgiving night. richard berry is the chief merchandising officer and joins us now to discuss his expectations for this holiday shopping season. richa richard, welcome. i've got a lot riding on this interview because if my 8-year-old knew i was talking to the chief at toys r us, he would be crazy. what is the difference going to be this year compared to last year? >> as you mentioned, we have a very compressed holiday shopping season this year. we have the collision of the hanukkah holiday. we have thanksgiving and we only have a short period of time between thanksgiving and christmas. in fact, people are going to wake up on sunday morning and realize that it's actually december.
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so that puts a lot of pressure overall on consumers and at toys r us we think about how we can make some really great compelling offers for the customers and get them motivated to get the procrastinators out of the homes, into the cars, and into the stores to get great deals. >> richard, shoppers are addicted to discounts and sales and promotions. are you doing more or less than last year or the same? >> of course we're doing more. we have a ton of really great offers. in fact, we have over 300 door busters this year compared to 200 last year. we have deals at 5:00, at midnight, at 5:00 a.m. in the morning and the whole weekend we'll have a series of really great deals including deals on our new toys r us online shopping channel that we launched. our strategy here really is to make sure that we give customers the greatest option to enjoy the deals that we have and to really make sure that they can decide when they want to shop.
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so for those customers that want to stay at home, that's cool, too. so at 12:01 a.m. on thursday site went live and you can get to the store at 5:00 p.m. on thursday or you can also get that at 5:00 a.m. on friday morning. whatever suits you, we got the opportunities for you. >> let's talk about different categories of toys. is there one must have toy this year? i realize that children of different ages and so what might work for a 3-year-old isn't going to work for an 8-year-old or a 14-year-old, but what do you expect category-wise is going to be the hot area this year? >> there is a load of hot toys this year. we're excited about the invasion. for preschoolers, an incredible elmo this year, which is the first elmo that actually hugs you back and incredible. it's an item on the hot holiday toy list. >> i find that mindly disturbing, an elmo that hugs me
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back but i'll go with it. >> we'll get you one. we've also got a really fantastic item called the uglies, it's an animated dog. you put your hand inside the dog and it makes some really great sounds like farting and belching and in the video game space, great invasion that's come this year. so whether it's sky landers swap force from active vision or disney infinity, those games allow you to take action figures and basically be able to play them in a video game and we got really fantastic offers. those items are 50% off in the sale. >> one frustration for many parents and shoppers is getting their hands on those special toys. i mean, sometimes you just can't find them. are you going to be well stocked and quickly, what kind of sales bump are you expecting from the promotions and being open on thanksgiving day? >> we're expecting a really
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great day. we have tons of inventory in the stores. and we have inventory arriving every single day. and in fact, the shortened holiday period plays to the strength of toys r us. we pride ourselves in having the widest acrossment, the greatest number of exclusives, having great products that you can only find at our stores, and we pride ourselves on our in stock position. so we'll have trucks rolling up to the stores right until a minute before we close on christmas eve to make sure that we have all those hottest toys in stock. >> richard, i think i'll pass on the dog you can put your hand into and makes those an tom mickelson sounds but when you describe them in the nice british accent, it sounded okay to me. chief merchandising officer at toys r us. >> cheers. our next geuest is forecasting a not so jolly holiday sales. what you just heard, enthusiasm from toys r us, why are you so gloom my? >> well, what is going to happen
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is he's right on the fact on thursday, you'll see more shoppers go on thursday than last year. 50.2% of america shopped before 6:30 on friday morning a year ago. >> 52 on americans shopped -- >> shopped and bought. >> in a store or online or both? sto >> stores alone. >> 50% of them shopped on friday morning. this year those numbers could shift. i think you'll see as high as a 37% increase of shoppers on thursday night and friday as you moverlier. >> that sounds like what we'll write about and talk about on monday morning, this weekend got off to a blockbuster sport. >> and retailers won't do any promotions after thanksgiving and they lose that momentum. the issue is no longer how many days there are between thanksgiving and christmas but how many days retailers are advertising 50% off. they have been advertising 50% off four to five days and they
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averaged a 2.1 to 2.5% increase. that's why i think it will be weak again this year because the consumer wants deals and have to wait until the last week to get them. >> okay. >> so is 50% off the magic moment? >> actually, 70% is the magic number. >> that's magic. >> that means you wait longer to get that 70% -- >> exactly. >> closer to christmastime. i mean, who is doing it right? who will be the winner and the loser? >> walmart has the new wrinkle, which is early bird specials. we'll have these 20 items in our store for the first hour after we open and we guarantee you can get them. that's a new wrinkle in the black friday equation. the trouble is, susie, we could have a 30% increase in shoppers by not an increase in dollars because the rates are going down dramatically and that's the problem with retail today like best buy. they struggled because they sell more tvs but at lower prices. >> they will make money still at 50 -- merchants will make money
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at 50 and 70% off, let's not make a mistake but less revenue and less profit as a result. >> exactly. what happens is -- keep in mind if a retailer gets a consumer to walk in the door on black friday weekend, there is a 70% chance they will come back two or three times to buy. if they don't walk in on black friday, there is a 40% chance they will come back. the early bird specials on thursday and friday are the retail momentum changer to get the consumer in the store time and time again. >> talking about consumer spending and buying, what is the consumer mood? is your take on how much they are willing to open wallets? >> well, it's hard to say. i want to say three things. one is consumers will buy more gifts for more people but here is what is interesting. last year 35 to $50 was the number one gift range. today -- this year it's 25 to $35. they are buying more gifts but dropping lower and 20 to $25, it will be bigger. >> very quickly, hot product is
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going to be? >> computer. >> tablets? >> 16% -- >>i ipads -- >> it's 20%, tvs and -- one more point. the other question is how much will digital technology affect retailers because as you see, as people begin to click from the i -- you know, to the internet into their card, that's up 3,000 percent this year and as more retailers like target get in it, you'll see 15% -- >> you see brit's tie with the christmas pac pakage. >> he's in the mood. well, over the past decade, coming up, as we head into the final months of the year, what might the stock market's past performance tell us and our next guest will tell you what he thinks are the safest and riskiest things in the market? naughty and nice for your money.
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over the past decade, december has been kind to investors and with stock indexes at all time or multi year highs, there are high hopes once again for the end of the year. dominic chu takes a look now whether stocks can deliver some holiday cheer. >> reporter: let's talk turkey or better yet, dancer about fulls because investing recent history shows being in the stock market has produced pretty plump returns. over the past decade, the s&p 500 posted up nine out of the last ten years. if you're looking for some of the stocks that did the best
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during that time frame, take a look at goodyear tire. they were up 11% on average and lennar up 10.5% on average during thanksgiving and year end. and if you're looking for more fuel from the bullish camp, consider this, in audition to this year, there have only been four other times when the s&p 550 -- 500 have been up that high and the index finished the year with additional gains. it's one of the reasons why some experts believe that even with stocks at record highs, they are still worth buying. >> between now and the end of the year, it's still okay to come back into the markets. in fact, have a plan. do it on a very much rebalancing basis each month into next year and into 2015. >> reporter: so making gradual purchases of stock over time is one way to go. this is the time of year investors look into invest in
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retailers, after all,ist shopping season. it's whether americans end up spending that hard earned money. >> i think it will be a challenging season. what is interesting to me, we might get -- the expectation is so low right now, we might get to the end of the season and realize things aren't as bad as we thought and that could be the surprise. >> the market debate continues but there is optimism even if it's of the cautious variety. for "nightly business report", i'm codominic chu. he's predicting the s&p 500 index will reach 2020 in the new year. her chief market strategist. welcome to the program and happy thanksgiving. so tell us why you think that -- what is going to drive the markets in the new year? >> well the broadening of the global economic expansion is going to go from a u.s. centric only it's going to broaden to the other developed markets but to the emerging markets and frontier markets, and i think
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that's very under appreciated. if you look at the trends over the past decade, the global economy has troubdoubled. >> we're up 33% on nasdaq and 27% for the s&p, 25% for the dow. can it keep going? i mean, that's just getting up there. >> well, if you look at it, it's been driven by all-time record profits in 2013 and my forecast for 2014 is more record profits. so it's fund mentally based and i think the earnings growth can continue to propel this market forward. if you look at it, it's still cheap up 14.8 on next year earnings, that's compelling value and i think that investors are starting to capitulate to get into this market and i think it will further drive this market forward. >> i don't need to tell you, but
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one worry for investors is what is it going to be like once the federal reserve begins reducing stimulus at taper talk? so do you think that the fed tapering will work for or against investors in the new year? >> i believe it's time that's come to start tapering back that it's excessive and unconventional monetary policy. the economy is actually in really good shape, record h-hig retail sales and time to remove that. it's discounted in the market and i think what it is is showing you that we're getting back to normal and that we don't need the fed excessive stimulus. so i think it's good news. >> where could i eke out a little extra alpha as they say on wall street? is it emerging markets? is it mid caps? small caps? ? >> well, i think you want to come down the risk curve, that is, getting into mid caps. you talked about that and
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because of this global economic expansion, we like pretty much anything global so emerging markets, frontier markets, global rates, as well, i think is an attractive place if we're in inflation environment down the road, then our rates can really adjust their rent to almost as inflation hedge. >> doug, we have half a minute. tell us quickly sectors you think will do well. an't name specific stock. >> i like consumer discretionary because they have been supported by the fed stimulus and it's helped housing. it's helped the markets. as a malter of fact, with thewet, consumer wealth is an all-time record high and smart cap technology. software and services and industrials, machinery, i think because of the global economic expansion that is going to be the earnings growth certainly will be there. so it's a good fundamental place to be. >> okay. terrific. thanks so much for coming on the
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program. doug, chief market strategist of ing. with the stock market sitting at lofty levels, many may be feeling thankful and when they feel thankful they may feel charitable and giving to charity is taking on a new level of importance. robert frank explains. >> reporter: with stock markets reach pg higing highs, wealth a giving are expected to grow from mid to single digits. the giving pledge that promised by billionaires to give away half their wealth by bill gates and warren buffet helped by entrepreneurs and more. spanx founder given by 100. they don't want to write a check. they want measurable, accountable results. matthew bishop says impact
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investing and social returns replaced old notions of just writing a check. >> i think there is a growing theme that what matters most in giving is not just the amount but the impact that you have. and i think we are going to hear more and more about impact, both on the giving side but also on how they invest. ♪ ♪ >> reporter: he said the arts may get less while education, technology and programs targeting poverty in the u.s. may get more. >> there is growing pressure and awareness in america that maybe more money needs to go to dealing with some property issues is at home in america, which have maybe not been as high on the radar in the past few years. >> reporter: it's estimated to take five to six years before we reach the 2007 to 6 peak of giving. i'm robert frank. still to come, the start of the holiday season is the start of some very busy days on the roads, in the air and in the theaters. the year-end cost and competition for your dollars
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when we come back. this thanksgiving traveling to celebrating is serving up the usual busy days. crowded roads, packed planes, long lines. most americans will travel more than 30 miles and depending you you're traveling there is good news and bad news. phil lebeau explains. >> reporter: there is good news and bad news for those traveling this thanksgiving weekend. let's start with the good news. gas prices 3.$3
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3.20 a gallon. >> people will travel more than when it was close to $4. >> i think more people will travel. i think for sure, but is it really cheaper? no, not that cheaper. >> reporter: the average amount expected to be spent on thanksgiving trips this year will be $465. experts disagree about whether or not the overall amounts spent on trips will be the same or dip a little lower. for its part, the u.s. travel association expects the amount spent on thanksgiving travel to be up 1 to 2%. >> when it comes to travel, people will travel to see families, to be with friends and that will mean a lot of congestion at the airports. >> reporter: the bad news for thanksgiving travelers is reserve for the 3 million who are flying. travel os city says the average round trip is $415, up almost 7%, mainly because planes will be packed and airlines have few if any seats they need to discount. >> you may see fewer people in the concourses, but the planes
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are still going to be filled because the airlines have really got the supply and demand and pretty well can figure it out. >> adding to the hassle this long holiday weekend is a winter storm moving across the country and bringing with it delays and cancellations. meaning those who actually got where they wanted to be for thanksgiving on time truly had something to be thankful for. phil lebeau, "nightly business report." the box office is typically busy the last few weeks of the year with a slew of high-profile movies. so what is hitting the silver screen and how will ticket sales stack up? julia boorstin breaks down the expectation for the box office and studios. >> reporter: this holiday season box office could be bigger than ever thanks to lines gate "hunger games" with the biggest november opening weekend ever and a range of other promising
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slicks in the pipeline like warner brothers "hobbit" seek well and "anchor man 2." >> it's seven or eight weeks, dollar for dollar, just as important as the summer because it accounts for 20% of the box office compressed into the short time frame at the end of the year. it's extremely important. >> reporter: with a diverse mix of films from oscar fair like "mandela's long walk to freedom" and "frozen." films that appeal to critics like "hustle," visitors to universal city walk in los angeles are excited to head to theaters. >> hunger games, definitely. >> there is better stuff around the holiday season because they hold it for when everybody has time and money. >> makes you want to get to the movies every day if you can. the big question is whether this year's lineup of holiday
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movies will help the box office surpass last year. it's now lacking but about 2% but has the potential to meet or surpass the 10. 8 billion-dollar growth. which studios will come out on top? "li "lion's gate" is the one to beat and "stars mr. banks" with tom hanks and "frozen" and the "hobbit" follow up, last year "the hobbit, an unexpected journey" grossed the most worldwide this is an important time as they release the film most likely to draw oscar buzz bringing home golden stood fews in february. >> it's a great time for summer movies mixed in with oscar caliber films. >> reporter: for "nightly business report", i'm julia
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boorstin. >> that is it for this special edition of "nightly business report" for tonight. i'm tyler mathisen, happy thanksgiving, everybody and for all of you who observed, happy hanukkah. >> i'm susie gharib. happy thanksgiving from me, as well. have a great evening everyone. "nightly business report" has been brought to you in part by. >>, up to the minute stock market news and in depth analysis. our quant rating service prov e provides objective ratings daily on over 4300 stocks. learn more at the
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>> the following kqed production was produced in high definition. [ ♪music ] >> it's all about licking your plate. >> the food was just fabulous. >> i should be in psychoanalysis for the amount of money i spend in restaurants. >> i had a horrible experience. >> i don't even think we were in the same restauran